As Canada gears up for its federal election on April 28, 2025, a striking trend is emerging: Alberta is leading the charge among provinces wanting to break away and join the United States if Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party secure victory.
Fresh data from the Angus Reid Institute reveals deep-seated frustration in Albert, spotlighting a growing separatist sentiment that could reshape the nation’s future.
Let’s dive into the numbers, regional divides, and what this means for Canada.
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Alberta’s Separatist Surge: A Closer Look
With the election just weeks away, the Angus Reid Institute’s latest poll paints a vivid picture of Albert’s discontent.
Conducted from March 20 to 24, 2025, the survey sampled 2,400 Canadian adults via the Angus Reid Forum, weighted to reflect national demographics like region, gender, age, income, and education.
The results? Alberta stands out with the strongest opposition to a Liberal win under Carney’s leadership.
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When asked about a hypothetical referendum on leaving Canada, 15% of Albertans said they’d prefer their province to become an independent nation, while 11% favored joining the U.S. But here’s where it gets intriguing: if the Liberals form the next government, those numbers spike.
Support for independence jumps to 20% (a five-point rise), and the desire to join the U.S. soars to 27%—the highest in Canada.
This shift underscores a visceral reaction to the prospect of continued Liberal rule.
Regional Rivalries: Where Does Canada Stand?
Alberta isn’t alone in its separatist leanings, but it’s certainly the frontrunner in eyeing the U.S. as an alternative.
Saskatchewan follows closely, with 23% of residents open to joining the U.S. if Liberals win, up from a baseline of 10%.
British Columbia trails at 19%, showing a notable but less intense inclination.
Meanwhile, Quebec leads the pack in wanting full independence, with 18% favoring sovereignty regardless of the election outcome—a figure that holds steady even under a Liberal government.
Nationwide, the appetite for leaving Canada remains a minority view.
The Angus Reid Institute emphasizes that most Canadians—across all regions—would vote “no” in any referendum, regardless of who’s in power.
Still, the regional disparities are stark, and Alberta’s pro-U.S. tilt is unmatched.
Political Divide: Conservatives vs. Liberals
The poll also reveals a sharp partisan split.
Among current Conservative Party voters, 40% say they’d support their province exiting Confederation if the Liberals triumph.
An equal 40% would back joining the U.S. in that scenario.
Compare that to Liberal and NDP voters, where only about 4% express similar sentiments, and the divide becomes crystal clear.
For Conservative strongholds like Alberta and Saskatchewan, a Liberal victory isn’t just a political loss—it’s a trigger for existential questions about Canada’s unity.
This polarization reflects broader tensions.
Alberta, a Conservative bastion, has long felt alienated by federal policies under Liberal governments, from carbon taxes to energy regulations.
A Carney-led administration, perceived as a continuation of progressive priorities, seems to be the tipping point for many.
Why Alberta? Unpacking the Frustration
So, what’s driving Alberta’s push toward the U.S.?
Economic and cultural factors loom large.
The province, rich in oil and gas, has chafed under federal policies that critics say stifle its resource sector.
Add in trade threats from U.S. President Donald Trump—think tariffs and annexation rhetoric—and some Albertans see alignment with the U.S. as a pragmatic move.
Premier Danielle Smith has fueled this narrative, hinting at a post-election “what’s next?” panel to explore sovereignty options.
While she insists she wants Canada to work for Albert, her flirtations with U.S. conservative figures—like appearances at events with Ben Shapiro—signal a willingness to look south.
The Angus Reid data suggests she’s tapping into a real undercurrent of discontent.
The Numbers Game: A Minority with Momentum
Let’s break down the stats for clarity:
- Baseline Sentiment (No Specific Government Outcome):
- Alberta: 15% for independence, 11% for U.S. annexation
- Saskatchewan: 10% for independence, 10% for U.S.
- Quebec: 18% for independence, 5% for U.S.
- If Liberals Win:
- Alberta: 20% for independence, 27% for U.S.
- Saskatchewan: 23% for independence, 23% for U.S.
- British Columbia: 15% for independence, 19% for U.S.
These jumps aren’t seismic—most Albertans still prefer staying Canadian—but they’re significant.
A 16-point leap (11% to 27%) in U.S. annexation support under a Liberal government shows how quickly sentiment can shift.
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And with 30% of Albertans overall wanting to leave Canada in some form if Liberals win, the province is a hotbed of separatist energy.
Canada’s Unity at Stake?
The Angus Reid Institute cautions that these figures represent a vocal minority, not a mandate.
Across Canada, 90% would reject becoming the “51st state” in a referendum, a consensus cutting across political and demographic lines.
Yet, the West—Albert and Saskatchewan especially—stands apart.
If the Liberals win on April 28, 2025, expect regional tensions to flare.
For context, separatist sentiment isn’t new.
In 2019, after the Energy East pipeline cancellation and Bill C-69 (the “no more pipelines” bill), 82% of Albertans felt Ottawa was hurting their economy.
Today’s numbers are lower but more actionable, with a clear U.S. pivot.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has warned of a Western “eruption” under Liberal rule, and the data backs him up—especially among his base.
What’s Next for Alberta and Canada?
As election day looms, Alberta’s stance could dominate headlines.
A rally planned at the legislature post-election signals grassroots momentum, with voices like lawyer Jeffrey Rath pushing a no-tax, pro-U.S. vision.
Meanwhile, Carney’s Liberals lead polls at 46% nationally, per Angus Reid, against Poilievre’s Conservatives at 38%.
If that holds, Albert’s separatist minority could grow louder—and bolder.
Will Alberta really chase statehood? Unlikely in the short term.
The hurdles—legal, economic, and political—are immense.
But the sentiment is real, and it’s a wake-up call for Ottawa.
Canada’s unity isn’t fracturing yet, but the cracks are widening.
Final Thoughts: A Nation Divided?
Alberta’s lead in wanting to join the U.S. if Liberals win the 2025 election is more than a poll quirk—it’s a symptom of deeper divides.
Economic grievances, political alienation, and a flirtation with American conservatism are converging in the West.
Whether it’s a bargaining chip or a genuine exit strategy, Albert’s message is clear: change the game, or we might just leave it.
Stay tuned as Canada heads to the polls.
The outcome could redefine not just the government, but the country itself.
Stay updated with CTC News.
