On February 27, 2025, Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative (PC) Party secured a historic third consecutive majority government in the Ontario provincial election, a feat not accomplished by a party leader in the province since 1959.
With the looming threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods dominating the political landscape, Ford’s victory underscores his ability to harness voter anxiety over economic stability into a renewed mandate.
As the dust settles on this rare winter election, the question on everyone’s mind—Who won Ontario election 2025?—has a clear answer: Doug Ford and the PCs, cementing their dominance in Canada’s most populous province.
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A Snap Election Defined by Tariffs
Ford’s decision to call the election more than a year ahead of schedule was a calculated gamble, predicated on the need for a “strong mandate” to confront Trump’s tariff threats, which could devastate Ontario’s manufacturing-heavy economy.
The province, home to 35% of Canada’s population and a significant portion of its industrial exports to the U.S., faced an uncertain future as Trump reiterated his intention to impose tariffs starting as early as the following week.
Ford framed the election as a referendum on his leadership in navigating this economic storm, a strategy that resonated with voters despite criticism from opponents who deemed the early call unnecessary given his existing majority.
The campaign, launched in late January after Ford met with Lieutenant Governor Edith Dumont to dissolve the 43rd Provincial Parliament, unfolded over a brisk 28 days.
Unlike the 2022 election, which centered on healthcare, affordability, and housing, the 2025 contest was dominated by a singular external factor: Trump.
Ford’s messaging was relentless—sporting a “Canada is not for sale” hat, making two high-profile trips to Washington, D.C., and pledging a “Team Ontario” approach to safeguard jobs and businesses.
In his victory speech at the Toronto Congress Centre, Ford declared, “Donald Trump thinks he can break us.
He is underestimating the resilience of the Canadian people, the Canadian spirit.
Make no mistake: Canada won’t start a fight with the U.S., but you better believe we’re ready to win one.”
Who Won Ontario Election 2025? A Progressive Conservative Sweep
Polls closed at 9 p.m. ET on February 27, and within minutes, major media outlets including CTV News, CBC, and The Toronto Star projected a decisive PC majority.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) estimated the PCs captured 43% of the popular vote, a figure bolstered by pre-election polls from Abacus Data showing Ford’s party surging to 45% among committed voters in the campaign’s final days.
By 10 p.m., with 117 of 124 ridings reported, the PCs had clinched 75 seats, well above the 63 needed for a majority in Ontario’s legislature.
Ford’s personal victory in his Etobicoke North riding came early, setting the tone for a night of celebration at PC headquarters.
Cheers erupted as the majority was confirmed, and Ford took the stage, flanked by his wife Karla and daughters, to address supporters.
“Together we have made history,” he proclaimed.
“Together we have secured a strong, historic third majority mandate—a mandate to protect Ontario.”
The win not only solidified Ford’s legacy but also marked the first time in over six decades that an Ontario premier has achieved three straight majorities, echoing the tenure of Leslie Frost from 1949 to 1959.
The opposition parties faced mixed fortunes.
The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Marit Stiles, retained its status as the official opposition, projected to hold around 23 seats despite a lower popular vote share than the Liberals.
Stiles, in her first election as leader, struck a defiant note at her Toronto headquarters: “Our job will once again be to hold this government to account—with our usual fight and determination, but also with love and hope and optimism.”
Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberals, under Bonnie Crombie, regained official party status with at least 15 seats and a 30% vote share, a significant rebound from their 2022 performance.
However, Crombie’s night was bittersweet as she lost her bid for a seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville to PC candidate Silvia Gualtieri, prompting questions about her future leadership despite her vow to stay on.
The Green Party, led by Mike Schreiner, held its two existing seats in Guelph and Kitchener Centre but fell short of a hoped-for third in Parry Sound-Muskoka, where PC incumbent Graydon Smith prevailed.
Schreiner congratulated Ford but promised to serve as an “unofficial official opposition,” signaling the Greens’ intent to remain a vocal force at Queen’s Park.
Voter Turnout and Winter Woes
The election’s timing—Ontario’s first winter vote in over a century—proved a double-edged sword.
Voter turnout, reported at 42.62% by Elections Ontario as of 10 p.m., hovered near the record low of 44% set in 2022.
Snowstorms blanketed much of the province on election day, with Environment Canada issuing warnings for up to 25 centimeters of snow in northern regions and 10 centimeters in Toronto.
Political analysts, including John Shields of Toronto Metropolitan University, suggested the weather disproportionately favored Ford as an incumbent, with motivated voters more likely to brave the elements for a known quantity.
Advance voting reflected similar disengagement, with 678,789 ballots cast—roughly 6% of eligible voters—down 36% from 2022’s 1,066,545.
The shorter three-day advance polling period, compared to ten days in the prior election, likely contributed to this drop.
Some voters, like Grace in Scarborough, expressed frustration by declining their ballots, citing dissatisfaction with the early call or the available candidates.
“I’m tired of picking the best of the worst,” one voter told CP24, encapsulating a sentiment of electoral fatigue.
The Trump Factor: A Campaign Wildcard
Trump’s shadow loomed large over the campaign, an unprecedented influence that Kory Teneycke, Ford’s campaign manager, described as “unparalleled and unprecedented.”
Ford’s trips to Washington and his tariff-focused platform—including $5 billion in promised spending to counter economic fallout—shifted the narrative away from traditional provincial issues like healthcare and housing.
Critics, including former Liberal premier David Peterson, accused Ford of exploiting the tariff threat for political gain, noting his limited leverage over international trade.
“He’s campaigning on things he has very little influence on,” Peterson told CTV, yet acknowledged Ford’s “clever” timing.
The opposition struggled to pivot voter attention.
The NDP emphasized healthcare, where 2.5 million Ontarians lack a primary care provider, up from 1.8 million in 2020, while the Liberals highlighted Ford’s past scandals, notably the Greenbelt controversy under RCMP investigation.
Yet, as Nik Nanos of Nanos Research observed, “The election ends where it began—it’s about the cost of living and the economy and the impact of Trump on both of those things.”
Ford’s approval rating, rebounding to 41% in the campaign’s final week per Abacus Data, underscored his resilience among voters prioritizing economic stability.
Key Ridings and Unexpected Twists
Several ridings offered glimpses into the election’s dynamics.
In Mississauga East-Cooksville, Crombie’s defeat by Gualtieri—a relative political novice with ties to Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown—marked a stinging upset for the Liberals, who had hoped to capitalize on Crombie’s mayoral legacy in Peel Region.
In Hamilton Centre, the NDP reclaimed the seat from independent Sarah Jama, who had been ejected from the party over her Israel-Gaza comments, with Robin Lennox securing 38% of the vote.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore saw a rare PC loss, with Liberal Lee Fairclough unseating incumbent Christine Hogarth in a transit-focused riding.
Border towns like Windsor West, where tariffs threatened 15% of jobs, leaned heavily toward Ford’s economic protectionism, delivering a PC win despite a strong NDP base in 2022.
Meanwhile, misinformation marred the night, with a robocall in Algoma-Manitoulin falsely claiming independent Michael Mantha had withdrawn, prompting a complaint to Elections Ontario.
Implications for Ontario and Beyond
Ford’s victory carries weight beyond Queen’s Park.
With a federal election anticipated later in 2025, the results signal a potential boost for the Liberal Party in Ottawa, as University of Toronto professor Semra Sevi noted: “These results show how external factors—like Trump’s tariffs—can significantly shape the political climate and voter priorities.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau congratulated Ford, emphasizing collaboration on jobs, housing, and healthcare, while Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow echoed the call for a united front against a “senseless U.S. trade war.”
Domestically, Ford faces pressure to deliver on campaign promises—cracking down on crime, ending encampments, and improving infrastructure—while addressing healthcare woes and the looming tariff fallout.
His platform’s lack of clarity on funding these initiatives, amid warnings of an unbalanced budget if tariffs hit, will test his third term’s credibility.
A Historic Win Amid Controversy
Ford’s path to this triumph was not without turbulence.
The Greenbelt scandal, which saw him reverse a plan to open protected land for development amid allegations of favoritism, remains under RCMP scrutiny.
Yet, his populist style—honed as a Toronto councillor and brother to the late, controversial mayor Rob Ford—proved impervious to such critiques.
As Scott Reid of CTV News remarked, Ford could be on the verge of “an almost historic victory,” potentially securing up to 90 seats if late counts align with projections.
For Ontarians, the question Who won Ontario election 2025? is answered, but the road ahead remains fraught.
Ford’s third mandate, born of a tariff-fueled campaign, positions him as a central figure in Canada’s economic defense against Trump.
Whether he can outlast and outlive the U.S. president’s policies, as he pledged, will define his legacy—and Ontario’s future.
Stay updated with CTC News.
