As Canada heads toward the 2025 federal election on April 28, a new poll has sparked a firestorm of debate about national unity.
While Quebec and Alberta have long been the poster children for separatist sentiment, a surprising contender has emerged: Saskatchewan.
According to a recent Angus Reid Institute survey, this Prairie province is more eager than any other to consider leaving Canada if Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals secure victory over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
With 33% of Saskatchewan residents saying they’d vote to form an independent nation in a referendum, the findings raise critical questions about Canada’s future.
Is a national unity crisis brewing?
Let’s dive into the poll results, the underlying frustrations, and what this could mean for the country.
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The Poll That Shook Canada: Saskatchewan Leads the Charge
The Angus Reid Institute’s survey, conducted from March 28 to 31, 2025, with 2,131 Canadian adults, offers a startling glimpse into regional discontent.
The poll asked respondents how they’d vote in a hypothetical referendum to leave Canada if the Liberals form the next government.
Saskatchewan topped the list, with 33% of residents saying they’d support separation—higher than Alberta and Quebec, both at 30%.
Nationally, only 20% of Canadians expressed similar sentiments, making Saskatchewan’s numbers stand out.
Why Saskatchewan?
The province’s political landscape offers clues.
Every federal seat in Saskatchewan is currently held by the Conservative Party, reflecting a deep-rooted preference for conservative policies.
The prospect of another Liberal government, especially under Carney, appears to be a breaking point for many.
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, lending credibility to these eye-opening figures.
Why Saskatchewan Feels Overlooked
To understand Saskatchewan’s separatist leanings, we need to explore the province’s sense of alienation.
Only 25% of Saskatchewan residents feel their province is respected by the rest of Canada, compared to a national average of 52%.
Similarly, just 33% believe the federal government treats Saskatchewan fairly—half the national average of 62%.
These numbers point to a deep frustration that’s been simmering for years.
Saskatchewan’s economy relies heavily on agriculture, energy, and natural resources, sectors often at odds with federal policies perceived as favoring urban centers like Toronto and Montreal.
Recent trade tensions with the United States, coupled with ongoing debates over carbon taxes and resource development, have only amplified these grievances.
For many in Saskatchewan, a Liberal win symbolizes more of the same: policies that prioritize other regions while sidelining the Prairies.
A Broader Context: Alberta and Quebec in the Mix
While Saskatchewan’s numbers are the highest, Alberta and Quebec aren’t far behind.
Alberta’s 30% separatist sentiment aligns with its history of vocal discontent, particularly over energy policies and federal overreach.
Premier Danielle Smith has frequently championed greater provincial autonomy, and the poll suggests a significant portion of Albertans might take it a step further if the Liberals prevail.
Quebec, with its decades-long separatist movement, also shows 30% support for leaving Canada under a Liberal government.
However, Quebec’s motivations differ, rooted in cultural and linguistic identity rather than economic grievances alone.
The fact that Saskatchewan outpaces both provinces is a testament to the intensity of Prairie frustration in 2025.
The National Unity Question: How Real Is the Threat?
Is Canada on the brink of a national unity crisis?
The poll numbers are concerning, but they don’t tell the whole story.
While 33% in Saskatchewan favor separation, that leaves 67% who don’t—a clear majority.
Nationally, the 20% who’d consider leaving is significant but far from a mandate for dissolution.
Still, these figures highlight a growing divide that could worsen if left unaddressed.
The 2025 election is shaping up to be a referendum on more than just policy—it’s about whether Canada can hold together amid regional tensions.
Carney’s leadership, praised for its economic focus, faces scrutiny for its perceived disconnect with Western Canada.
Poilievre, meanwhile, has leaned into Prairie frustrations, promising to prioritize resource development and reduce federal interference.
The outcome could hinge on how each leader addresses these regional fault lines.
The Role of U.S. Influence in Separatist Fantasies
Adding fuel to the fire is the specter of American influence.
The poll reveals that 40% of Conservative voters nationwide—including many in Saskatchewan—would consider joining the United States if the Liberals win.
This idea, once dismissed as fringe, has gained traction amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats and provocative comments about Canada becoming the “51st state.”
For some in Saskatchewan, the U.S. represents an economic and political escape from federal policies they view as punitive.
However, joining the U.S. is a long shot.
It would require navigating complex constitutional, economic, and cultural barriers—none of which enjoy majority support.
Still, the fact that it’s even part of the conversation underscores the depth of discontent in the Prairies.
Historical Parallels: Lessons from Quebec and Alberta
Saskatchewan’s separatist sentiment isn’t entirely new—it echoes past movements in Quebec and Alberta.
Quebec’s 1980 and 1995 referendums saw separatist support peak at 49.4%, narrowly losing to the federalist side.
Alberta’s “firewall” movement in the early 2000s, led by figures like Stephen Harper, pushed for greater autonomy without full separation.
Saskatchewan, however, has rarely been at the forefront of such discussions, making its current mood a significant shift.
Unlike Quebec, where separatism is tied to cultural identity, Saskatchewan’s grievances are economic and political.
Unlike Alberta, which has a louder separatist voice, Saskatchewan’s discontent has flown under the radar—until now.
Understanding these distinctions is key to addressing the root causes.
The Political Landscape: Why Conservatives Dominate Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan’s federal ridings tell a clear story: all 14 seats belong to the Conservatives.
This dominance reflects a province that feels out of step with Liberal policies, from carbon pricing to gun control.
Premier Scott Moe, a vocal critic of federal overreach, has bolstered this sentiment with legislation aimed at protecting provincial autonomy, such as the Saskatchewan First Act.
The Angus Reid poll suggests that a Liberal victory could push Conservative voters to extremes.
Two in five Conservative supporters nationwide say they’d be open to leaving Canada, with Saskatchewan leading the charge.
For these voters, Carney represents a continuation of policies they associate with economic stagnation and Prairie neglect.
What’s Driving the Alienation?
Several factors contribute to Saskatchewan’s sense of disconnection:
Economic Frustration: Saskatchewan’s resource-based economy—think potash, oil, and agriculture—faces challenges from federal regulations and global market shifts.
Many residents feel Ottawa prioritizes other regions, leaving the Prairies to fend for themselves.
Cultural Disconnect: Urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver often dominate national conversations, leaving rural provinces like Saskatchewan feeling marginalized.
This urban-rural divide fuels resentment.
Trade Tensions: U.S. tariffs and trade disputes have hit Saskatchewan’s export-driven economy hard.
Some residents see separation—or even alignment with the U.S.—as a way to escape these pressures.
Political Polarization: The 2025 election has amplified divisions, with Poilievre’s populist rhetoric resonating in the Prairies while Carney’s globalist approach feels distant to many.
These factors combine to create a perfect storm, where separatism becomes a way to express frustration rather than a fully formed plan.
Could Saskatchewan Actually Leave?
The logistics of Saskatchewan leaving Canada are daunting.
It would require a constitutional amendment, a referendum with clear majority support, and negotiations over everything from debt to defense.
Even Alberta, with its louder separatist rhetoric, has never come close to executing such a plan.
Saskatchewan, with a population of just 1.2 million, faces even steeper odds.
Moreover, the poll’s hypothetical scenario—a Liberal win—doesn’t guarantee action.
Separatist sentiment often spikes during heated elections but cools when practical realities set in.
Still, the numbers serve as a warning: ignoring Saskatchewan’s grievances could have long-term consequences.
The Path Forward: Healing the Divide
To avoid a deeper crisis, Canada’s leaders must address the root causes of Prairie discontent.
Here are some steps that could help:
Economic Investment: Targeted support for Saskatchewan’s resource sectors, such as streamlined regulations or infrastructure funding, could ease economic fears.
Regional Representation: Ensuring Prairie voices are heard in Ottawa—through cabinet appointments or policy consultations—could bridge the urban-rural gap.
Trade Diplomacy: Resolving U.S. trade disputes would alleviate pressure on Saskatchewan’s export industries, reducing the allure of American alignment.
National Dialogue: A public conversation about federalism, perhaps through a royal commission, could help air grievances and rebuild trust.
Carney and Poilievre both have roles to play.
Carney must show he understands Prairie concerns, while Poilievre must avoid fanning divisive flames for short-term gains.
The stakes are high—Canada’s unity depends on it.
What Happens on April 28?
The 2025 election is shaping up to be one of Canada’s most consequential.
With Carney leading in some polls and Poilievre close behind, the outcome remains uncertain.
Saskatchewan’s separatist sentiment adds a layer of complexity, forcing both leaders to confront regional divides head-on.
If the Liberals win, Saskatchewan’s 33% separatist bloc won’t trigger an immediate exit, but it could fuel demands for greater autonomy or even a formal referendum.
If the Conservatives prevail, it might cool tensions temporarily—but only if Poilievre delivers on promises to prioritize the Prairies.
A Wake-Up Call for Canada
Saskatchewan’s unexpected rise as Canada’s separatist hotspot is a wake-up call.
The Angus Reid poll reveals a province frustrated, overlooked, and ready to consider drastic measures if its voice isn’t heard.
While a national unity crisis isn’t imminent, the cracks are showing.
The 2025 election offers a chance to mend these divides—or widen them further.
As Canadians head to the polls, Saskatchewan will be a province to watch.
Its 33% separatist sentiment may not lead to independence, but it signals a deeper truth: Canada’s strength lies in its ability to listen to all its regions, not just the loudest ones.
Will the nation rise to the challenge?
Only time will tell.
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