Christine Fréchette is facing a difficult final stretch of Quebec’s election campaign after new polling showed the Coalition Avenir Québec losing ground among older voters and francophones less than two weeks before the October 5 vote.
A Léger survey conducted from September 18 to 21 found that the Parti Québécois had widened its advantage over the CAQ among francophone voters to 13 percentage points, up from eight points at the beginning of the campaign. The survey questioned 1,001 Quebec adults through an online panel.
The findings add to a series of recent surveys showing that the early improvement in the CAQ’s position has stalled. A separate Pallas Data poll conducted on September 19 placed the PQ at 28 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with the CAQ and Quebec Liberal Party tied at 22 per cent.
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Christine Fréchette loses ground with key voters
The latest results are particularly significant because the CAQ had been relying heavily on older voters to support its campaign for another mandate.
The PQ has now moved ahead of the CAQ among voters aged 55 and over, a group where Fréchette had previously performed strongly. The shift leaves the governing party with less room to absorb losses elsewhere in the electorate.
The Pallas survey also reported a sharp decline in Fréchette’s personal standing. She placed third on the question of which party leader would make the best premier, behind PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Liberal Leader Charles Milliard.
That result does not determine the election outcome, but it suggests that Fréchette’s personal appeal is no longer providing the same advantage to the CAQ that it appeared to offer earlier in the campaign.
Debates change the campaign’s momentum
The shift follows two televised leaders’ debates held during the week of September 14. Fréchette was challenged by the leaders of the PQ, Quebec Liberal Party, Parti conservateur du Québec and Québec solidaire on the CAQ’s record and campaign priorities.
The polling indicates that the debates may have strengthened Plamondon’s position while helping Éric Duhaime become a more prominent second-choice option for voters, particularly in the Quebec City region.
The CAQ had attempted to make U.S. tariffs and the economic threat posed by President Donald Trump a central campaign issue. However, the latest survey findings suggest that voters are placing greater emphasis on the cost of living and public services.
For Fréchette, that creates a challenge: the campaign message that helped her party recover some support earlier in the election is becoming less dominant as voters compare the parties’ domestic platforms.
What the latest polling means
The surveys do not amount to a forecast. Poll results can vary depending on methodology, timing and voter turnout, and the CAQ remains within striking distance of its opponents in several regions.
However, the direction of movement is a concern for the governing party. Léger’s previous survey, conducted from September 10 to 13, placed the CAQ at 21 per cent, behind the PQ at 29 per cent and the Liberals at 23 per cent. Fréchette also fell in measures assessing who would make the best premier and which leader had run the strongest campaign.
The Pallas survey released September 21 similarly placed the CAQ and Liberals at 22 per cent, behind the PQ at 28 per cent. It reported that Fréchette’s net favourability rating had fallen by 17 points compared with the previous wave.
Those results point to a competitive three-way race for second place, while the PQ attempts to turn its lead into a majority government.
Final days could still reshape the race
Quebec voters will go to the polls on Monday, October 5. Advance voting is scheduled for September 27 and 28, while voting at returning offices will take place from September 25 to 26 and September 29 to October 1.
The campaign’s remaining debate and the final days of local campaigning will be important for Fréchette as she attempts to reassure voters that the CAQ can offer both continuity and change.
Her party must also defend seats across regions where support has become fragmented among the PQ, Liberals and Conservatives. Even modest shifts in turnout or vote distribution could alter the seat count substantially under Quebec’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
For now, the governing party is entering the closing phase of the campaign with its leader under increased scrutiny, its strongest demographic showing signs of weakening and voters showing a growing appetite for a change in government.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 Quebec provincial election?
Quebec’s general election will be held on Monday, October 5, 2026.
Who is Christine Fréchette?
Christine Fréchette is the leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec and Quebec’s premier.
What do the latest polls show?
Recent surveys place the Parti Québécois ahead, with the CAQ competing closely with the Quebec Liberal Party for second place.
When can Quebec voters cast ballots early?
Advance voting is scheduled for September 27 and 28, 2026. Voting at returning offices is also available on several dates before election day.
Are election polls predictions?
No. Polls measure voting intentions at a specific time and can differ because of methodology, timing, turnout and late campaign developments.
Fact-Checked: Key election dates and polling details were checked against Élections Québec, Léger and Pallas Data information published in September 2026. ([quebec.ca](https://www.quebec.ca/en/news/actualites/detail/2026-provincial-election-polling-day-is-october-5-72332))
Disclaimer: Polling results are snapshots of voter intentions and should not be treated as forecasts of the final election result.