Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada examined the possibility of U.S. military action as an “extreme tail risk,” while stressing that such a conflict is not the government’s base-case scenario.
Carney made the remarks in an interview published Wednesday, September 23, 2026, as Canada’s relationship with the United States remains strained by trade disputes, political pressure and uncertainty over the future of bilateral negotiations.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said.
“That’s just risk management.
That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare, he added.
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What Mark Carney said about the U.S. risk
Carney did not provide details about the scenarios examined by Canadian officials or describe any specific military contingency plans.
His comments were framed as part of a broader approach to national risk management rather than as a warning that military action by the United States is imminent.
The prime minister has also indicated that he and U.S. President Donald Trump continue to communicate, even as economic relations have become more difficult.
That combination of continued leader-to-leader contact and contingency planning reflects the government’s effort to manage an increasingly unpredictable relationship without treating every extreme scenario as likely.
Canada’s defence and sovereignty plans
Canada has already begun reshaping its defence and industrial policies around greater domestic capacity and reduced dependence on foreign supply chains.
The federal Defence Industrial Strategy calls for Canada to build critical capabilities at home, partner with trusted allies where necessary and buy equipment abroad only when domestic production or allied cooperation is not practical.
The strategy identifies sovereignty, resilient supply chains and Canadian control over key defence technologies as central objectives.
It also places emphasis on sectors including aerospace, shipbuilding, space systems, digital technologies, ammunition and autonomous systems.
Ottawa has described the policy as both a security measure and an economic strategy intended to create jobs, strengthen Canadian industry and improve the country’s ability to respond during a crisis.
Trade tensions add pressure
Carney’s comments come after Canada and the United States held intensive trade discussions during the summer without resolving all outstanding issues.
In an August 18 statement, the prime minister said substantial progress had been made but acknowledged that important work remained, while emphasizing the need for a stronger and more independent Canadian economy.
Since then, Ottawa has continued pursuing closer relationships with Europe and other international partners.
During his September visit to the United Kingdom, France and the United Nations, Carney promoted cooperation in defence industries, critical minerals, energy, artificial intelligence and other areas tied to strategic autonomy.
The government has presented those partnerships as a way to expand Canada’s options rather than abandon cooperation with the United States.
What happens next
The immediate focus for Canadians will remain the trade relationship, including tariff measures and the prospects for renewed negotiations.
Defence officials will also face pressure to translate the government’s sovereignty language into concrete investments, procurement decisions and stronger domestic supply chains.
Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy is intended to support that shift, but major military capabilities take years to develop, acquire and maintain.
Carney’s remarks therefore point less to an imminent military confrontation than to a change in how Ottawa assesses national risk.
The government is preparing for a wider range of economic, technological and security shocks while continuing to state that cooperation with the United States remains important.
Why the comments matter
For decades, Canada’s defence and economic planning has assumed close and durable cooperation with the United States.
That relationship remains central to continental security, including through longstanding North American defence arrangements.
However, the government’s recent policies suggest Ottawa wants more room to act independently if political or economic pressure from Washington increases.
Carney’s description of U.S. military action as an extreme tail risk is significant because it places even a highly unlikely scenario within the formal responsibilities of Canadian national planning.
It does not establish that an attack is expected, and it does not indicate that Canada believes conflict is approaching.
Instead, it underscores the government’s argument that sovereignty depends on having credible domestic capabilities and dependable relationships beyond a single partner.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Mark Carney say a U.S. attack on Canada is likely?
No. Carney described U.S. military action as an extreme tail risk and said it was not the base-case scenario.
What did Carney say Canada had done?
He said Canadian officials had examined the possibility as part of responsible risk management but did not disclose details of the planning.
Why is Canada reviewing this type of risk?
The review comes amid heightened trade and political tensions with the United States and a broader effort to strengthen Canadian sovereignty and resilience.
What is Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy?
It is a federal plan to strengthen domestic defence production, secure supply chains and improve Canadian control over critical military capabilities.
Is Canada ending defence cooperation with the United States?
No. Canada continues to rely on continental cooperation while also seeking stronger domestic capabilities and deeper partnerships with Europe and other allies.
Fact-Checked: Key dates, statements and policy details were checked against official Government of Canada and Prime Minister of Canada information, with the interview remarks corroborated through current reporting.
Disclaimer: This article describes a contingency risk discussed by the prime minister and does not indicate that military conflict between Canada and the United States is expected or imminent.