The aurora borealis could become more visible across parts of Canada on Friday, October 9, as a coronal mass ejection released by the Sun is expected to reach Earth and trigger minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a watch for G1 to G2 geomagnetic storms on October 9.
The event is linked to a coronal mass ejection associated with an M1.4 solar flare from Active Region 4549 on October 6.
Table of Contents
Aurora borealis chances increase on October 9
NOAA’s latest forecast calls for a possible peak planetary Kp index of 5.67 between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC on October 9.
That corresponds to a G2, or moderate, geomagnetic storm on the NOAA scale, although the exact timing and strength can change as the solar material approaches Earth.
NOAA says the strongest activity is expected after the CME’s arrival early on October 9 UTC.
The agency’s forecast also calls for G1-level conditions during earlier portions of the day, followed by unsettled to active conditions as the solar wind remains enhanced.
For Canadian observers, the most useful viewing opportunity will depend on when the storm reaches its strongest phase, local darkness and cloud cover.
A storm that peaks during daylight will not produce a visible display for locations under the Sun, but activity can continue for several hours and may shift as the CME interacts with Earth’s magnetic field.
Where the northern lights may be visible
The best odds will remain in northern and central Canada, where the auroral oval is normally overhead or nearby.
During stronger periods, the oval can expand toward more southerly Canadian locations, potentially including parts of Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
Visibility from southern Canada is never guaranteed during a G1 or G2 event.
Clear skies, limited light pollution and a view toward the northern horizon will be important, particularly for observers outside the main auroral zone.
Natural Resources Canada’s Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre reported active auroral-zone conditions early on October 8, but its short-term forecast showed quiet conditions for the following 24 hours.
That means the more significant viewing opportunity is tied to the expected CME arrival on October 9 rather than the conditions observed Thursday morning.
What caused the expected geomagnetic storm
A coronal mass ejection is a large cloud of magnetized plasma launched from the Sun.
When one is directed toward Earth, its interaction with the planet’s magnetic field can produce geomagnetic storms and intensify the aurora.
In this case, NOAA linked the expected disturbance to solar activity from Active Region 4549.
Forecast discussions said a CME associated with the October 6 flare was expected to reach Earth early on October 9, while another solar eruption could contribute a glancing impact.
Forecast uncertainty is normal.
CME arrival times can shift by several hours, and the brightness of an aurora depends not only on the storm’s Kp rating but also on the direction and strength of the solar magnetic field when the cloud arrives.
How to watch the aurora in Canada
- Choose a dark location away from city lights.
- Check the local cloud forecast before leaving home.
- Give your eyes at least 20 minutes to adjust to darkness.
- Look north, but scan the entire sky if geomagnetic activity intensifies.
- Use a phone camera with night mode, since cameras can capture colours that are difficult to see immediately with the naked eye.
The strongest displays often occur in short bursts rather than as a continuous show.
Viewers should also avoid relying on a single forecast, since real-time solar-wind measurements can change the outlook quickly.
What happens next
NOAA expects G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm conditions on October 9, followed by a return toward quieter or unsettled conditions on October 10, although another high-speed solar-wind stream could keep activity elevated.
For Canadians hoping to see the aurora borealis, Friday night and the early hours around the storm’s arrival may offer the best opportunity.
The display will still depend on darkness, location, cloud cover and the actual strength of the incoming solar disturbance.
Frequently Asked Questions
When could the aurora borealis be visible in Canada?
The best opportunity is expected around the arrival of a coronal mass ejection on October 9, 2026, especially during local nighttime hours when skies are clear.
Will the northern lights be visible across all of Canada?
No. Northern Canada generally has the best odds, while stronger geomagnetic activity may push the aurora farther south into parts of the provinces.
What is causing the expected aurora display?
A coronal mass ejection associated with an October 6 solar flare is expected to interact with Earth’s magnetic field and produce G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm conditions.
What should I check before watching the aurora?
Check the latest space-weather forecast, local cloud cover, darkness, light pollution and real-time auroral activity before travelling to a viewing location.
Can the forecast change?
Yes. CME arrival times and storm strength can shift by several hours, so the most reliable outlook will come from updated forecasts and real-time solar-wind data on October 9.
Fact-Checked: Key dates, storm classifications and CME information were checked against NOAA and Natural Resources Canada space-weather forecasts.
Disclaimer: Aurora visibility is not guaranteed and depends on storm timing, darkness, cloud cover, location and local viewing conditions.