Jon Husted holds a narrow lead over Sherrod Brown in the latest Ohio Senate poll, but the result is effectively a statistical tie less than three weeks before voters decide the race.
The ActiVote survey released Sunday, October 18, put Husted, the Republican incumbent, at 50.2 per cent among 400 likely midterm voters.
Brown, the Democratic former senator, recorded 49.8 per cent.
ActiVote reported an average expected error of 4.9 percentage points, meaning the four-tenths-of-a-point gap is far smaller than the poll’s margin of uncertainty.
The survey was conducted between September 26 and October 18, with a median field date of October 7.
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Jon Husted and Brown remain locked in a close race
The new result presents a sharply competitive picture in a state that has moved firmly toward Republicans in recent presidential elections but still has a history of electing Democrats to statewide office.
Husted’s support was strongest among rural voters, men, voters aged 30 to 64 and people with no more than a high-school education, according to the poll’s subgroup results.
Brown held advantages among urban and suburban voters, women, Black voters, younger voters and people with college or graduate degrees.
Those subgroup estimates are based on smaller samples and carry greater uncertainty than the overall result.
The survey also showed Husted leading among voters placed in the centre of ActiVote’s political-spectrum model, 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
Brown maintained stronger support among left-leaning respondents, while Husted led among moderate-right and right-leaning voters.
Other recent Ohio polling has produced different results
The ActiVote survey is not the only recent reading of the contest.
An October poll from Bowling Green State University’s Democracy and Public Policy Research Network, conducted with YouGov, found Brown ahead of Husted by 48 per cent to 42 per cent among 1,000 likely Ohio voters.
That BGSU poll was conducted from September 29 to October 9 and also showed a six-point Democratic advantage in the governor’s race.
The difference between the surveys underscores how sensitive the race is to polling methods, field dates, turnout assumptions and the treatment of third-party or independent candidates.
Neither poll should be interpreted as a prediction of the final result.
A lead smaller than a survey’s margin of error indicates that the candidates are statistically indistinguishable in that poll.
Why the November vote is unusual
Ohio’s Senate contest is a special election to fill the remainder of the term that became vacant when J.D.
Vance left the Senate after becoming vice-president.
Ohio Gov.
Mike DeWine appointed Husted to the seat in January 2025.
The state’s writ of election set the special election for Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The winner will serve the rest of Vance’s term, making the contest both a test of Husted’s ability to retain the seat and an important measure of Ohio’s political direction during the 2026 midterms.
What Ohio voters should know next
Ohio voters have access to nearly four weeks of early in-person voting for the November 3 election, according to the secretary of state’s voting schedule.
The state’s official election calendar includes early in-person voting and absentee voting deadlines leading up to Election Day.
Voters should confirm registration status, polling information and county-specific procedures through the Ohio Secretary of State or their county board of elections.
With the newest poll showing Husted ahead by less than one percentage point and another recent survey showing Brown ahead by six, the central question is not whether the race is competitive.
It is how turnout and late-campaign movement will shape a contest that remains too close for the current polling to settle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Ohio Senate race in the latest poll?
Jon Husted leads Sherrod Brown by 50.2 per cent to 49.8 per cent in the ActiVote poll released October 18, 2026.
Is Jon Husted’s lead statistically significant?
No. Husted’s 0.4-point advantage is much smaller than the poll’s 4.9-point average expected error.
Who is Sherrod Brown running against?
Sherrod Brown is running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to Ohio’s Senate seat in January 2025.
When is the Ohio Senate election?
Ohio’s special election for the Senate seat is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Why are recent Ohio Senate polls different?
Polls can differ because of their field dates, sample sizes, turnout models, weighting methods and how they measure support for other candidates.
Fact-Checked: Key figures, polling dates, the Senate vacancy timeline, the November 3 election date and Ohio’s early in-person voting schedule were checked against the ActiVote survey, Bowling Green State University research and official Ohio election information.
Disclaimer: Polling results are snapshots of voter preferences and do not determine the election outcome.