Northern Canada weather is expected to remain unusually mild through much of November, with Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasting above-normal temperatures across several northern and western locations.
The developing pattern is most visible across the western Prairies, northern Alberta and parts of Labrador, where seasonal forecasts favour temperatures above normal for the October-to-December period.
The outlook is probabilistic, however, and does not rule out short-lived cold snaps or snow events.
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Northern Canada Weather: What the November forecast shows
Calgary is expected to see a pronounced warm stretch during the second week of November.
Environment Canada’s Calgary forecast issued Sunday, November 8, called for highs of 10 C on Monday, 12 C on Tuesday, 17 C on Wednesday and 19 C on Thursday, November 12.
Those temperatures are well above Calgary’s listed normal highs of about 4 C for the period.
The same forecast showed overnight lows remaining above freezing on several nights, although winds were expected to remain a concern in the short term.
Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, was also forecast to remain warmer than normal.
Environment Canada listed a high of 17 C for Sunday, November 8, followed by 12 C Monday, 10 C Tuesday and 13 C Wednesday, according to its Moose Jaw forecast.
A stronger warm pulse was forecast later in the week, with highs of 18 C Thursday and 17 C Friday.
Moose Jaw’s normal high for the period is about 2 C, making the forecast highs roughly 10 to 16 degrees above normal on several days.
Why northern Canada is part of the pattern
Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast lists above-normal temperatures for a range of northern stations, including Fort Chipewyan and Fort McMurray in Alberta, as well as several Labrador locations.
The agency’s tables show the strongest probabilities in some northern communities, while also warning readers to consider the forecast’s historical skill.
A temperature anomaly describes the difference between expected conditions and the long-term normal for a location and time of year.
It does not mean every day will be warm, nor does it imply that winter has been cancelled.
In northern communities, even a milder-than-normal forecast can still include freezing temperatures, snow, ice and rapidly changing travel conditions.
The contrast is measured against a climate that normally becomes colder quickly during November.
Calgary may challenge a daily record
The Calgary forecast has also raised the possibility of a daily temperature record on Wednesday, November 11.
Earlier Environment Canada guidance placed the high near 19 C, close to Calgary’s November 11 record of 19.4 C.
The forecast has shifted slightly as new updates were issued, and the latest Sunday afternoon outlook put the high at 17 C for November 11 and 19 C for November 12.
That means a record challenge remains possible but is not guaranteed.
What happens next
The immediate outlook favours mild, mainly dry weather across parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
That could support easier travel and outdoor work, but strong winds may create separate hazards, especially in exposed areas and near open highways.
Environment Canada had a wind warning in effect for Calgary on Sunday, with gusts forecast to reach 90 to 100 km/h and potentially exceed 110 km/h closer to the Canada-U.S. border.
Warm temperatures do not eliminate the risk of hazardous weather.
Longer-range conditions remain less certain.
A warmer November pattern can be interrupted by Arctic air, and seasonal forecasts cannot determine the exact timing of local storms, freezes or record temperatures.
Residents in northern and Prairie communities should continue checking local forecasts, warnings and road reports before travelling.
The most reliable details will come from short-range updates as each weather system approaches.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is northern Canada expected to be warmer than normal in November 2026?
Environment Canada’s seasonal outlook favours above-normal temperatures in several northern and western locations, although the forecast does not identify one guaranteed cause for every community or every day.
How warm could Calgary get in November 2026?
Environment Canada’s November 8 forecast called for highs of 17 C on November 11 and 19 C on November 12, well above the normal high of about 4 C.
Could Calgary break a November temperature record?
A daily record challenge is possible, particularly if temperatures reach the upper teens, but records depend on the final observed temperature and the official reporting station.
Will the warm weather last all month?
No. Seasonal forecasts describe broad probabilities rather than daily conditions, and cold snaps, snow and freezing temperatures can still occur during a warmer-than-normal month.
What should residents do during the unusual warmth?
Check updated local forecasts and warnings, especially before travelling, because strong winds and rapidly changing conditions can create hazards even when temperatures are mild.
Fact-Checked: Key forecast figures, seasonal outlook details and local normal temperatures were checked against Environment Canada forecast and seasonal forecast information.
Disclaimer: Weather forecasts can change, and residents should rely on the latest local Environment Canada warnings and advisories for decisions about travel and safety.