Ontario gas prices are expected to ease again on Thursday, November 12, with regular gasoline in the Greater Toronto Area forecast to fall to about 156.9 cents per litre.
The projected one-cent decline follows a five-cent drop on Wednesday and comes after an 11-cent reduction earlier in November, offering drivers another small break after a volatile stretch at the pumps.
The GTA forecast applies primarily to Toronto and the GTA, while many communities across southern Ontario are expected to see similar movements, although prices can vary between cities and individual stations.
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Ontario gas prices continue a steep November retreat
At the forecast price of 156.9 cents per litre, a 50-litre fill-up would cost about $78.45 before any station-specific difference.
For a driver filling a 55-litre tank, the same price would work out to approximately $86.30.
That represents a saving of about 55 cents compared with Wednesday’s projected GTA average of 157.9 cents per litre, and roughly $3.30 compared with the 162.9-cent price recorded on Tuesday.
The larger change has occurred over several days: GTA regular gasoline was listed at 177.9 cents per litre on November 1, before a series of declines brought the forecast down to 156.9 cents per litre for November 12.
Prices remain above some of the lowest levels recorded earlier in 2026, but the latest reductions have reversed much of the sharp increase seen during October.
What drivers are expected to pay Thursday
| Fuel | GTA forecast for Nov. 12 | Expected change |
|---|---|---|
| Regular gasoline | 156.9 cents per litre | Down 1 cent |
| Premium gasoline | 188.9 cents per litre | Down 1 cent |
| Diesel | 231.9 cents per litre | Down 4 cents |
The diesel forecast points to a larger overnight reduction than gasoline, which could provide some relief for commercial operators, delivery businesses and drivers of diesel-powered vehicles.
Actual prices may differ from the forecast because stations do not always change their signs at the same time and retailers set prices according to local competition, supply arrangements and operating costs.
Drivers in Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan, Markham, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo and other southern Ontario communities should therefore treat the figures as a regional guide rather than a guaranteed price at every station.
Why are gas prices falling in Ontario?
Retail gasoline prices reflect several layers of the fuel market, including crude oil, refined gasoline, wholesale pricing, transportation costs, taxes and local station competition.
The recent Ontario decline has followed weaker energy-market pricing and lower wholesale costs, although pump prices can react with a delay because retailers may still be selling fuel purchased under earlier market conditions.
Seasonal changes also matter, as refineries and fuel suppliers move through different gasoline specifications and demand patterns during the year.
That means a large drop over several days does not necessarily guarantee that prices will continue falling at the same pace.
International developments can also quickly change the direction of the market, particularly when they affect crude-oil supply expectations, shipping routes or refinery operations.
How much tax is included in Ontario gasoline?
Ontario’s gasoline tax is currently 9 cents per litre for unleaded gasoline, according to the provincial government.
The province permanently kept the reduced gasoline-tax rate at 9 cents per litre beginning July 1, 2025, after previously applying a temporary reduction.
The Ontario government also publishes weekly motor-fuel prices and daily wholesale-price information, but its weekly survey can differ from a same-day retail forecast because the survey and forecast use different timing and methods.
One independent price estimate based on the Ontario survey put Toronto regular gasoline at 162.8 cents per litre for the November 9 survey, with a modelled estimate of 159.1 cents for November 12.
The lower 156.9-cent figure is the GTA forecast published by Canadians for Affordable Energy and reflected in the regional pump-price outlook, illustrating why motorists may see different numbers depending on the source and station.
When should Ontario drivers fill up?
Drivers who can wait may see the lower forecast price after the overnight adjustment on Thursday, although there is no guarantee that every station will immediately follow the regional average.
Fuel-price analyst Dan McTeague’s GTA guidance advises motorists to check prices later in the day, when some stations may have completed their adjustments.
Waiting for a one-cent change will make only a modest difference on a normal passenger vehicle, but the savings become more noticeable for larger tanks, frequent commuters and commercial fleets.
For example, a 10-cent-per-litre difference changes the cost of a 50-litre fill-up by $5, while a 20-cent difference changes it by $10.
Comparing nearby stations can produce savings that are larger than the next daily regional move, particularly in areas with several competing fuel retailers.
Will gas prices keep falling after Thursday?
There is not yet enough information to say that Ontario gas prices will continue declining after Thursday.
Recent movements have been sharply lower overall, but gasoline markets can reverse quickly when wholesale prices, crude oil or refinery conditions change.
The immediate outlook is therefore more limited: motorists are expected to see another small gasoline reduction Thursday, while diesel prices are forecast to fall by more than gasoline.
Drivers planning a weekend trip should monitor local station prices rather than rely exclusively on a single regional average.
For households managing transportation costs, the cumulative November decline is likely to matter more than any one-cent daily adjustment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Ontario gas prices expected to be on Thursday, November 12, 2026?
Regular gasoline in the GTA is forecast at about 156.9 cents per litre, down one cent from the previous forecast.
Are gas prices falling across all of southern Ontario?
Many southern Ontario communities are expected to see similar declines, but prices vary by city, station and local competition.
How much does a one-cent gas-price drop save?
A one-cent-per-litre reduction saves 50 cents on a 50-litre fill-up and 55 cents on a 55-litre fill-up.
What is Ontario’s gasoline tax rate?
Ontario’s tax on unleaded gasoline is currently 9 cents per litre.
Will Ontario gas prices continue to fall after Thursday?
That is uncertain because pump prices can change quickly in response to crude oil, wholesale gasoline, refinery and supply-market conditions.
Fact-Checked: Key prices, dates, tax information and the regional forecast were checked against Ontario government information and current fuel-market data.
Disclaimer: Forecast prices are regional estimates and may differ from the amount posted at an individual gas station.