BC election polls are putting the Conservative Party of B.C. ahead of the B.C. NDP in the final days before British Columbians cast ballots on Saturday, October 24, 2026.
The latest Leger survey places the Conservatives at 44 per cent among decided voters, followed by the NDP at 39 per cent and the Greens at 13 per cent.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to 22 among 1,072 British Columbia residents and gives the Conservatives a five-point advantage heading into final voting day.
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What the latest BC election polls show
The final Leger survey is not the only recent poll to show a Conservative lead, although the size of that lead varies between pollsters.
| Pollster | Field dates | Conservatives | NDP | Greens |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | October 20-22 | 44% | 39% | 13% |
| Angus Reid Institute | October 15-19 | 46% | 43% | 8% |
| Innovative Research | October 15-19 | 43% | 38% | 12% |
| Mainstreet Research | October 17-18 | 41.7% | 36.0% | 14.6% |
The Angus Reid Institute reported a three-point Conservative lead in its most recent survey, with the Conservatives at 46 per cent and the NDP at 43 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
That poll described the race as a statistical tie once normal survey uncertainty is considered, while also finding the Conservatives ahead in several regions outside Metro Vancouver.
Across the recent surveys, the Conservatives are generally between 42 and 46 per cent, while the NDP ranges from 36 to 43 per cent.
The differences reflect separate field dates, sample designs, wording and methods for dealing with undecided voters.
Why the regional picture matters
A provincewide polling lead does not automatically determine the seat count in British Columbia’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
The geographic distribution of votes will be especially important in Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island and the Interior.
Angus Reid found the NDP and Conservatives effectively tied in Metro Vancouver, with the NDP at 46 per cent and the Conservatives at 45 per cent in that region.
Leger’s regional results also showed a close contest, with the Conservatives holding a four-point advantage in Metro Vancouver while the NDP had a narrow edge on Vancouver Island.
That regional variation means a modest shift in support could have a larger impact in closely contested ridings than the provincewide numbers suggest.
Greens and smaller parties remain part of the equation
The B.C. Greens are polling well behind the two leading parties but remain a significant factor in several constituencies.
Leger recorded Green support at 13 per cent, while recent surveys from Angus Reid, Innovative Research and Mainstreet placed the party between 8 and 15 per cent.
The Greens’ performance could affect the final result in ridings where the NDP and Conservatives are separated by only a small number of votes.
Support for OneBC, CentreBC and other parties is also being measured differently across surveys, making direct comparisons less precise.
When British Columbians vote
Elections BC says final voting day is Saturday, October 24, 2026, with voting places open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific time.
Advance voting took place from October 16 through October 21, and voters could also use district electoral offices and other approved voting options during the election period.
The province is electing members in all 93 electoral districts.
Results will depend not only on late movement in voter preference but also on turnout, vote splitting and the ability of each party to convert provincewide support into individual riding victories.
What to watch before results arrive
- Whether the NDP closes the gap in Metro Vancouver.
- Whether Conservative support holds in the Fraser Valley and Interior.
- How Green support affects close NDP-Conservative contests.
- Whether undecided voters break toward one of the leading parties.
- Turnout among advance voters and supporters who wait until October 24.
The polls provide a snapshot rather than a guaranteed outcome.
With the latest surveys showing a Conservative advantage but a competitive two-party race in key regions, the final result could turn on a relatively small number of closely contested seats.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 B.C. provincial election?
Final voting day is Saturday, October 24, 2026, with voting places open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific time.
Who is leading in the latest B.C. election polls?
The latest Leger poll puts the B.C. Conservatives at 44 per cent and the B.C. NDP at 39 per cent among decided voters.
Are the B.C. election polls predicting the winner?
No. Polls measure reported voter intention at a specific time and cannot guarantee the result in individual electoral districts.
How are the B.C. Greens polling?
Recent surveys place the Greens between 8 and 15 per cent, with Leger recording 13 per cent in its final poll.
Why can a provincewide polling lead produce a different seat result?
British Columbia uses first-past-the-post voting, so the geographic distribution of support across ridings matters more than the provincewide vote share alone.
Fact-Checked: Key polling figures, voting dates and voting hours were checked against the latest pollster releases and Elections BC information. Final Voting Day hours are 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific time.
Disclaimer: Poll results are estimates of voter intention and should not be treated as a guarantee of the final election outcome.